Paper/Subject Code: 46003/Finance: Investment Analysis & Portfolio Management
TYBMS SEM 5
Finance:
Investment Analysis &
Portfolio Management
(Q.P. November 2018 with Solution)
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NB:
(1) All questions are compulsory having internal option.
(2) Figures to the right indicate marks allocated to each question.
(3) Simple calculator is allowed.
Q1. (A) Match the following columns. (Any 8) (8)
|
Column A |
Column B |
|
1 PPF |
A Liquidity
ratio |
|
2 NIFTY |
B Uncertain
& high return |
|
C William
sharpe |
|
|
4 Standard
deviation |
D Elliot wave
theory |
|
5 Net Profit
ratio |
E Technical
Analysis |
|
6 Study of
Charts & pattern |
F
Profitability ratio |
|
G Measure of
Risk |
|
|
8 Capital
Assets Pricing model |
H
Controllable |
|
9 Gambling |
I NSE |
|
10 Current
ratio |
J Highly
illiquid |
Ans:
|
Column A |
Column B |
|
1 PPF |
J Highly illiquid |
|
2 NIFTY |
I NSE |
|
3
Unsystematic Risk |
H Controllable |
|
4 Standard
deviation |
G Measure of Risk |
|
5 Net Profit
ratio |
F Profitability ratio |
|
6 Study of
Charts & pattern |
|
|
7 Dow Theory |
D Elliot wave theory |
|
8 Capital
Assets Pricing model |
C William sharpe |
|
9 Gambling |
B Uncertain & high return |
|
10 Current
ratio |
A Liquidity ratio |
1.(B) Give True or False: (Any 7) (07 Marks)
1) Investments are made with primary objective of deriving returns.
Ans: True
2) Capital gain refers to increase in value of investments over a period of time.
Ans: True
3) Non-Marketable financial assets can be sold in capital market.
Ans: False
4) Public Provident Fund is a savings cum tax saving instrument in India.
Ans: True
5) Treasury Bills are one of the riskiest Money market instruments issued by Central Government
Ans: False
6) Commercial Paper is a short term unsecured promissory note issued by Corporate and Financial Institutions,
Ans: True
7) Equity shareholders does not carry right of dividend.
Ans: False
8) Secondary Market is a market where existing securities are purchased and sold.
Ans: True
9) Merger and Acquisitions are major functions of Investment Bankers.
Ans: True
10) NSDL is the largest central security depository based in Mumbai.
Ans: True
2. (A) Explain the Non- marketable Financial Assets. (08 Marks)
Definition:
Non-marketable financial assets are financial instruments that cannot be sold or traded in the open market. These assets are typically held by individuals for savings or investment purposes and are not listed on stock exchanges or tradable through brokers.
They are usually issued by the government, financial institutions, or banks, and are intended to be held until maturity or for a fixed period.
Features of Non-Marketable Financial Assets:
-
Non-Transferable:
-
These cannot be transferred or sold to another party.
-
Only the original holder can redeem the investment.
-
-
Safe and Low-Risk:
-
Often backed by the government or reputable institutions.
-
Provide security of principal.
-
-
Fixed or Assured Returns:
-
Offer a pre-decided interest rate or maturity amount.
-
Returns are not affected by market fluctuations.
-
-
Held Till Maturity:
-
Investors usually hold these assets for a specific period (5, 10, 15 years).
-
Early withdrawal may be restricted or penalized.
-
-
Limited Liquidity:
-
Cannot be traded in secondary markets (unlike shares or bonds).
-
May not be easily converted to cash before maturity.
Advantages:
-
Safety of Capital: Low risk and secure.
-
Stable Returns: Predictable and steady income.
-
Tax Benefits: Instruments like PPF, NSC offer deductions under Section 80C.
-
Ideal for Long-Term Goals: Retirement, education, etc.
Disadvantages:
-
Not Tradable: Cannot be sold or transferred in stock markets.
-
Low Liquidity: Difficult to access funds before maturity.
-
Lower Returns: Compared to equity or mutual funds, returns are modest.
2. (B) Explain in brief the objectives of Investment. (07 Marks)
Investment refers to the allocation of money into assets or
instruments with the expectation of earning returns in the future.
People invest based on various financial goals and risk preferences.
Main Objectives of Investment:
1. Income Generation
- To
earn regular income through interest, dividends, or rent.
- Common
in fixed deposits, bonds, dividend-paying stocks, and rental property.
2. Capital Appreciation
- To
increase the value of the investment over time.
- Achieved
through long-term investments like equity shares, mutual funds, or real
estate.
3. Safety of Capital
- To preserve
the principal amount invested.
- Focused
on low-risk options like government bonds, PPF, or fixed deposits.
4. Liquidity
- To
ensure the investment can be easily converted into cash when
needed.
- Stocks
and mutual funds offer high liquidity compared to real estate or FDs.
5. Tax Benefits
- To reduce
tax liability through investments eligible under tax-saving sections
(e.g., 80C).
- Instruments
like PPF, ELSS, NSC, and life insurance qualify for tax deductions.
6. Retirement Planning
- To
create a corpus for retirement ensuring financial independence.
- Includes
investments in pension plans, EPF, PPF, annuities, etc.
7. Beat Inflation
- To
ensure the real value of money is maintained over time.
- Investments
in equity and mutual funds help generate returns above inflation.
OR
2. As Portfolio Management Consultant, you are approached by Mr. Wagh, aged 35 with investible funds of Rs. 10 lakhs. He wants to know from you the following: (15 Marks)
(i) What are the investment avenues available to him which will give a suitable return with maximum return?
(ii) What are the various types of risks?
3. (A) Calculation of Beta of each of the following two companies with the help of given information. (08 Marks)
|
Year |
Rudra Ltd |
Hethvi Ltd. |
Market return |
|
1 |
20 |
19 |
20 |
|
2 |
18 |
16 |
17 |
|
3 |
17 |
13 |
14 |
|
4 |
21 |
19 |
20 |
|
5 |
24 |
23 |
24 |
3. (B) The rate of return of stock Mocktail and Cocktail under different status of economy are given below: (07 Marks)
|
Particular |
Boom |
Normal |
Recession |
|
Probability |
0.30 |
0.45 |
0.25 |
|
Return on stock Mocktail Ltd. (%) |
35 |
55 |
70 |
|
Return of stock Cocktail Ltd. (%) |
70 |
55 |
35 |
a) Calculate the expected return and standard deviation of return on both the stock.
b) If you could invest in either stock Mocktail or stock Cocktail, but not in both. Which stock would you prefer?
OR
3. Following is information about shares of Modi Ltd. and Gandhi Ltd. Under in various economic conditions. At present both the shares are traded at Rs. 100.
|
| Returns % | |
Situation | Probability | Modi Ltd. | Gandhi Ltd. |
High Growth | 0.30 | 140 | 150 |
Low Growth | 0.40 | 110 | 100 |
Stagnation | 0.20 | 120 | 120 |
Recession | 0.10 | 100 | 80 |
(i) Which company has more risk to invest?
(ii) Mr. Kapil wants to invest Rs. 10,000.
(iii) Will your decision change if probabilities are 0.4, 0.4, 0.1, 0.1 respectively.
4. (A) Give a brief on Technical Analysis.
Technical Analysis is a method used to evaluate securities (like stocks) by analyzing past market data, primarily price and volume. It helps investors and traders predict future price movements based on historical patterns and market behavior.
Concepts of Technical Analysis:
-
Price Discounts Everything:
-
All information (economic, political, and market sentiment) is already reflected in the stock price.
-
-
Prices Move in Trends:
-
Prices generally move in a trend (uptrend, downtrend, or sideways) rather than randomly.
-
-
History Repeats Itself:
-
Market behavior tends to repeat over time, forming recognizable patterns.
-
📈 Tools Used in Technical Analysis:
-
Charts: Line, Bar, Candlestick (used to visualize price movement)
-
Indicators: RSI, MACD, Moving Averages, Bollinger Bands
-
Trendlines & Support/Resistance: To identify entry and exit points
-
Volume Analysis: Helps confirm price trends
Purpose of Technical Analysis:
-
To forecast future price trends
-
To identify buy and sell signals
-
To make short-term trading decisions
-
To manage risk effectively
Example:
If a stock shows a “head and shoulders” pattern, it might indicate a trend reversal. A breakout above resistance may signal a buy opportunity.
(B) what are charts? Explain the types of charts.
Charts are graphical representations of data that help visualize trends, patterns, and relationships in financial markets, business analysis, and statistical data. In investments and technical analysis, charts are widely used to track stock prices, trading volumes, and other market indicators.
Types of Charts
1. Line Chart
A simple chart that connects closing prices of an asset over time with a continuous line.
Helps identify trends and overall direction (uptrend, downtrend, sideways).
Long-term trend analysis.
2. Bar Chart
Displays open, high, low, and close (OHLC) prices for a specific period.
Each bar consists of:
Vertical line → Represents the price range (high to low).
Left tick → Opening price.
Right tick → Closing price.
Detailed price movements and volatility analysis.
3. Candlestick Chart
Similar to a bar chart but uses "candles" to represent OHLC prices.
Green/White Candle → Closing price is higher than the opening (bullish).
Red/Black Candle → Closing price is lower than the opening (bearish).
Identifying patterns, trends, and reversals in price movements.
4. Point & Figure Chart
Focuses on price movements without considering time.
Uses X (price rise) and O (price fall) in a grid format.
Helps filter out minor price fluctuations.
Identifying breakouts and long-term trends.
5. Renko Chart
Similar to a Point & Figure Chart but uses "bricks" to represent price changes.
Ignores time and focuses only on price movements.
Identifying strong trends with reduced noise.
6. Heikin-Ashi Chart
A modified version of the candlestick chart that smooths out price fluctuations.
Helps identify strong trends by averaging price data.
Spotting trend direction and reducing market noise.
7. Area Chart
A variation of the line chart, but the area below the line is shaded.
Useful for visualizing cumulative values.
Showing overall trends over time.
8. Volume Chart
Represents trading volume along with price movements.
Helps determine the strength of a price move.
Confirming trends with volume analysis.
OR
4. Following information is available relating to Lokesh Limited and Mayur Limited.
Particulars | Lokesh Limited | Mayur Limited |
Equity Share Capital (Rs.10 face value) | Rs.400 lakhs | Rs.500 lakhs |
Profit after tax | Rs.100 lakhs | Rs.140 lakhs |
Proposed Dividend | Rs.70 lakhs | Rs.80 lakhs |
Market Price Per Share | Rs.400 | Rs.560 |
Current Assets | Rs.160 lakhs | Rs.180 lakhs |
Current Liabilities | Rs.80 lakhs | Rs.90 lakhs |
Calculate
5. (A) The Expected return and Beta factors of 3 securities are as follows:
Securities | Expected Return (%) | Beta |
Kotak Ltd. | 18 | 1.6 |
Ganatra Ltd. | 10 | 0.8 |
Thakkars Ltd | 12 | 1.2 |
If the risk free rate is 7% and market returns are 12%. Calculate returns for each security under CAPM.
5. (B) The details of three portfolios are given below. (08 Marks)
Portfolio | Average Return on Portfolio (%) | Beta | Standard Deviation (%) |
Nobeta | 18 | 1.4 | 0.30 |
Sezuka | 12 | 0.9 | 0.35 |
Sunio | 16 | 1.1 | 0.40 |
Market Index | 14 | 1.0 | 0.25 |
Compare these portfolio on performance using Sharpe and Treynor measures. Risk Free return is 8%
5. Give short notes on: (Any Three)
1. CAPM Model
The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is a theoretical framework used to determine the expected return on an investment based on its risk. It helps investors decide whether a stock is fairly valued given its risk and the time value of money.
CAPM Formula:
Where:
-
Re = Expected return of the security
-
Rf = Risk-free rate (e.g., returns on Government Securities)
-
β (Beta) = Measure of the stock’s volatility relative to the market
-
Rm = Expected return of the market
-
(Rm - Rf) = Market risk premium (extra return for taking market risk)
Interpretation:
-
If CAPM return > actual return, the asset is overvalued
-
If CAPM return < actual return, the asset is undervalued
-
A higher beta means more risk and more expected return
Assumptions of CAPM:
-
Investors are rational and risk-averse
-
Markets are efficient
-
All investors have access to same information
-
No transaction or tax costs
-
Investors can lend and borrow at the risk-free rate
Uses of CAPM:
-
To calculate cost of equity for companies
-
To evaluate if a stock offers a fair return for its risk
-
Used in portfolio management, corporate finance, and valuation
Example:
Suppose:
-
Risk-free rate (Rf) = 5%
-
Expected market return (Rm) = 12%
-
Beta (β) = 1.5
So, the expected return from the asset is 15.5%.
2. Elliott Wave Theory
The Elliott Wave Theory, developed by Ralph Nelson Elliott in the 1930s, proposes that market prices move in specific patterns called "waves." These patterns reflect the collective psychology of investors, which oscillates between optimism and pessimism. Elliott identified two main types of waves:
Motive Waves: These waves move in the direction of the main trend and consist of five sub-waves.
Corrective Waves: These waves move against the main trend and consist of three sub-waves.
The basic Elliott Wave pattern consists of an eight-wave cycle: five waves moving in the direction of the main trend (labeled 1-2-3-4-5) followed by three waves moving against the trend (labeled A-B-C). This complete cycle then becomes a sub-wave of a larger wave pattern, creating a fractal structure.
The Five-Wave Motive Pattern
Motive waves are characterized by their five-wave structure, which propels the price in the direction of the larger trend. Each of these five waves has specific characteristics:
Wave 1: This wave is often difficult to identify early on, as it may appear as a random upward movement. It represents the initial phase of a new trend.
Wave 2: This wave is a corrective wave that retraces a portion of Wave 1. It should not retrace more than 100% of Wave 1.
Wave 3: This is typically the longest and strongest wave in the motive sequence. It represents the peak of optimism and often extends beyond the end of Wave 1.
Wave 4: This wave is another corrective wave that retraces a portion of Wave 3. It should not overlap with the price territory of Wave 1 (except in rare cases of diagonal triangles).
Wave 5: This wave represents the final push in the direction of the main trend. It is often accompanied by decreasing momentum and can be a sign of an impending reversal.
The Three-Wave Corrective Pattern
Corrective waves move against the main trend and are composed of three sub-waves, labeled A-B-C. These waves are generally more complex and varied than motive waves.
Wave A: This wave is the initial corrective wave, often appearing as a sharp decline after the completion of a five-wave motive sequence.
Wave B: This wave is a counter-trend rally that retraces a portion of Wave A. It is often a trap for unsuspecting traders who believe the main trend is resuming.
Wave C: This wave is the final corrective wave, moving in the same direction as Wave A and completing the corrective pattern. It often extends beyond the end of Wave A.
Fibonacci Ratios and Elliott Waves
Fibonacci ratios play a significant role in Elliott Wave Theory. Elliott observed that the relationships between wave lengths and retracement levels often correspond to Fibonacci ratios, such as 0.382, 0.5, 0.618, 1.618, and 2.618. These ratios can be used to:
Project potential price targets: By applying Fibonacci extensions to motive waves, analysts can estimate the potential length of subsequent waves.
Identify potential retracement levels: Fibonacci retracements can help identify potential support and resistance levels during corrective waves.
Confirm wave counts: The presence of Fibonacci relationships between waves can provide additional confirmation of a valid Elliott Wave count.
For example, Wave 2 often retraces 50% to 61.8% of Wave 1, and Wave 4 often retraces 38.2% of Wave 3. Wave 3 is often 1.618 times the length of Wave 1. These are just a few examples of how Fibonacci ratios can be used in conjunction with Elliott Wave Theory.
Elliott Wave Guidelines and Rules
While Elliott Wave Theory provides a framework for understanding market behavior, it also includes specific rules and guidelines that help analysts identify and interpret wave patterns. Some of the key rules include:
Wave 2 cannot retrace more than 100% of Wave 1.
Wave 4 cannot overlap with the price territory of Wave 1 (except in the case of diagonal triangles).
Wave 3 is never the shortest motive wave.
These rules help to ensure that the wave count is valid and consistent with the underlying principles of the theory. Guidelines, on the other hand, are not absolute rules but rather observations that tend to occur frequently. Some common guidelines include:
Wave 3 is often the longest wave.
Wave 5 will often equal Wave 1 in price and duration.
Alternation: If Wave 2 is a sharp correction, Wave 4 will likely be a sideways correction, and vice versa.
Challenges and Criticisms
Despite its popularity, Elliott Wave Theory is not without its challenges and criticisms. Some of the main criticisms include:
Subjectivity: Identifying and labeling waves can be subjective, leading to different interpretations by different analysts.
Complexity: The theory can be complex and difficult to apply in practice, requiring a significant amount of experience and skill.
Hindsight bias: It is often easier to identify wave patterns in hindsight than to predict them in real-time.
Lack of predictive power: Some critics argue that the theory is not reliable for predicting future price movements.
3. Hybrid Schemes
Hybrid schemes represent a powerful paradigm in problem-solving, leveraging the strengths of multiple techniques while mitigating their individual weaknesses. The core idea is to integrate distinct approaches, often from different disciplines, to create a synergistic effect. This integration can take many forms, from simply using one method to pre-process data for another, to tightly coupling algorithms in an iterative process.
Advantages of Hybrid Schemes
Improved Performance: As mentioned earlier, hybrid schemes can often achieve better accuracy, robustness, and efficiency compared to single methods.
Increased Flexibility: Hybrid schemes can be tailored to specific problem requirements by selecting and combining the most appropriate techniques.
Enhanced Adaptability: Hybrid schemes can be designed to adapt to changing conditions or new data by dynamically adjusting the weights or parameters of the different methods.
Better Interpretability: In some cases, hybrid schemes can provide more interpretable results than complex black-box models by combining methods with different levels of transparency.
Examples of Hybrid Schemes
Hybrid schemes are prevalent across various fields, including:
1. Machine Learning
Ensemble Methods: These methods combine multiple base learners (e.g., decision trees, support vector machines) to create a stronger, more robust model. Examples include Random Forests, Gradient Boosting, and Stacking.
Hybrid Neural Networks: Combining different types of neural network layers (e.g., convolutional layers, recurrent layers) to process different types of data or extract different features.
Neuro-Fuzzy Systems: Integrating neural networks with fuzzy logic to combine the learning capabilities of neural networks with the reasoning capabilities of fuzzy systems.
2. Optimization
Hybrid Genetic Algorithms: Combining genetic algorithms with other optimization techniques, such as local search algorithms, to improve convergence speed and solution quality.
Simulated Annealing with Local Search: Using simulated annealing to escape local optima and local search to refine solutions within promising regions.
Hybrid Metaheuristics: Combining different metaheuristic algorithms (e.g., genetic algorithms, particle swarm optimization, ant colony optimization) to leverage their respective strengths.
3. Control Systems
Fuzzy Logic Control with PID Control: Combining fuzzy logic control for handling nonlinearities and uncertainties with PID control for precise regulation.
Model Predictive Control with Adaptive Control: Using model predictive control for optimal control based on a model of the system and adaptive control to compensate for model uncertainties.
4. Signal Processing
Wavelet Transform with Fourier Transform: Using wavelet transform for time-frequency analysis of non-stationary signals and Fourier transform for frequency analysis of stationary signals.
Kalman Filtering with Particle Filtering: Combining Kalman filtering for linear Gaussian systems with particle filtering for nonlinear non-Gaussian systems.
5. Finance
Technical Analysis with Fundamental Analysis: Combining technical analysis (studying price charts and trading volumes) with fundamental analysis (analyzing financial statements and economic indicators) to make investment decisions.
Quantitative Models with Expert Judgment: Combining quantitative models for risk assessment and portfolio optimization with expert judgment to incorporate qualitative factors and market insights.
6. Healthcare
Machine Learning with Medical Expertise: Combining machine learning algorithms for disease diagnosis and treatment planning with the knowledge and experience of medical professionals.
Wearable Sensors with Clinical Data: Integrating data from wearable sensors (e.g., heart rate, activity level) with clinical data (e.g., blood pressure, lab results) to provide a more comprehensive view of a patient's health.
4. Secondary market
Definition:
The secondary market is a platform where previously issued financial instruments such as shares, debentures, bonds, and other securities are traded between investors, without the involvement of the issuing company.
Features:
-
Trading of Existing Securities
-
Securities are bought and sold after being initially issued in the primary market.
-
-
Liquidity Provider
-
Investors can easily buy or sell their holdings, making their investments liquid.
-
-
Market Price Determination
-
Prices are determined by demand and supply, and reflect the true market value of a security.
-
-
No Fund Flow to Issuer
-
The issuing company does not receive money in secondary transactions; the trade is between investors.
-
Examples of Secondary Markets:
-
Stock Exchanges:
-
NSE (National Stock Exchange) – India
-
BSE (Bombay Stock Exchange) – India
-
NYSE (New York Stock Exchange) – USA
-
Nasdaq – USA
-
Types of Secondary Market:
-
Stock Market – For equity shares
-
Bond Market – For debt instruments
-
Over-the-Counter (OTC) Market – Direct trades between parties
-
Auction Market – Buyers and sellers publicly declare prices (like stock exchanges)
Functions of Secondary Market:
-
Provides Liquidity to investors
-
Helps in Price Discovery
-
Encourages Capital Formation
-
Gives Investors an Exit Route
The secondary market is where investors buy and sell existing securities, making it an essential component of a healthy financial system by providing liquidity, transparency, and efficient capital allocation.
5. Sensex
The Sensex (Sensitivity Index) is the benchmark stock index of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) in India. It was introduced in 1986 and represents the performance of 30 well-established and financially sound companies across key sectors of the Indian economy. These companies are selected based on factors such as market capitalization, liquidity, and sector representation.
The Sensex serves as a barometer of the Indian stock market, reflecting investor sentiment and overall economic trends. Movements in the Sensex are influenced by various factors including corporate earnings, government policies, global market trends, and geopolitical events.
As one of the oldest and most widely followed indices in India, the Sensex provides investors and analysts with a snapshot of the country's stock market performance and economic health.
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2025 | April | Solution | |
Elective: Finance : Financial Accounting (CBCGS) | |||
Year | Month | Question Papers | Link |
IMP Q. |
|
| Solution |
2018 | Nov | ||
2019 | April | Solution | |
2019 | Nov | ||
2022 | Nov | ||
2023 | April | Solution | |
2023 | Nov | ||
2024 | Nov | ||
2025 | April | Solution | |
Elective: Marketing : Customer Relationship
Management (CBCGS) | |||
Year | Month | Question Papers | Link |
IMP Q. |
|
| Solution |
2018 | Nov | ||
2019 | April | ||
2019 | Nov | ||
2022 | Nov | ||
2023 | April | Solution | |
2023 | Nov | ||
2024 | Nov | ||
2025 | April | Solution | |
Elective: Human Resource: Industrial
Relation (CBCGS) | |||
Year | Month | Question Papers | Link |
IMP Q. |
|
| |
2018 | Nov | Solution | |
2019 | April | ||
2019 | Nov | ||
2022 | Nov | ||
2023 | April | ||
2023 | Nov | ||
2024 | Nov | Solution | |
2025 | April | Solution | |
Elective: Finance : Risk Management (CBCGS) | |||
Year | Month | Question Papers | Link |
IMP Q. |
|
| Solution |
2018 | Nov | ||
2019 | April | ||
2019 | Nov | ||
2022 | Nov | ||
2023 | April | Solution | |
2023 | Nov | ||
2024 | Nov | ||
2025 | April | Solution | |
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